δũƷгǹʴгԴũƷ罫ͳũҵߺԹΪгֺͷչսԽܵͬ£ĸԽϵ͵ļ۸ũƷĸҾгеõչũƷɱũƷ۸γɵĻΪˣĴӳɱĽǶȣȽϷҹҪũƷɱҪߵIJԼɱҪԭΪҹũƷɱӭҹũҵսṩݡ
һҪũɱĹʱȽ
һũɱˮƽ
1.ܳɱˮƽ
ϽҹСסͲ˺ɱˮƽϸߡҹÿСɱ1.2ǰ͢1.4Ǽôͷ2ϣ1ÿɱͰ͢1.1-1.2Ƿ2ࡣɱԼҪڹͰ͢ 1.2-1.3ҹͲѣɱߴ2.81Ԫ/Ǽô3ࡣҹÿɱֻ5%ңǵջʽһջҹͺࣩܶɱҪһЩоҪũУֻеɱһơȻҹ̵ÿɱҪң̩Ͱ͢ľɱȣйÿɱϵͣ1.14Ԫ/2.04Ԫ/44%.
ôʲôԭʹҹũƷɱڶչأӹũƷɱľĿũҩеءͶȷԼ˰պͳɱ֧һͼҳɱľԭ
2.ɱˮƽ
1ũҩãÿũƷɱеĻũҩˮƽҹߵĹ֮һÿСסͲѺɱУҹĻũҩöôͷ1ҹũﵥϸߣߵǸͶ롢߳ɱ߲ĵ·ͶȻǽɱֱ;Ȼµλ½ղһܴﵽ͵λƷɱĿġҪɱеʷãЧ;ǽũҵϼ۸
2еãͬͬǣҹũҵеˮƽϵͣÿλƷĻеȴ͡ȻСе̶ȱǸߵĶ࣬СģеʸߣλƷеͬǵĻƣ0.20-0.21Ԫ/1ҹũƷĻеˮƽͬϽеˮƽζţйũģܵе̶ȽһߣλƷӵĻеҲж仯
3طãϽũƷɱطõ֧ӦʹõĻɱƣ1ҹطýԸ˵سаú֮תãͬɱطDzɱȵġζܲҹʹõĻɱҹũɱҪȱ1гҪߡ
ҹһϡȱĹңתƺгķҹũƷصĻɱһתơũҵоũ飬ũÿĶأأתѴ200Ԫ400Ԫȣˣһ㽲ҹũƷɱеطҪңֻҹĿǰũƷɱûеõֵ֡
11997-98굾ȡСסͲ˺ɱˮƽĹʱȽ
ÿƷͶɱλƷ
ɱ
ũҩеػͶ˰ճɱ
Сй0.290.210.030.460.050.080.181.31
0.220.200.260.070.080.000.291.12
ô0.200.170.020.060.000.120.56
0.040.050.040.060.000.120.35
͢-0.91
й0.220.090.010.430.030.060.100.94
0.180.260.210.080.020.000.140.88
0.040.070.030.070.000.160.45
͢-0.79
й0.220.200.040.930.100.200.322.03
0.250.480.550.140.050.000.301.76
͢-1.51
Ͳй0.520.170.031.520.140.200.222.81
ô0.380.260.030.080.060.000.110.92
й4.091.980.422.960.280.993.3914.11
2.964.711.611.880.400.001.7513.45
̵й0.160.090.010.430.050.100.161.01
̩0.170.140.000.220.000.060.59
й0.230.180.050.410.050.080.151.14
0.350.530.390.180.100.000.492.04
Դ˵йɱԡȫũƷɱϻࡷҾӦҵũҵũҵоλйɱΪ1997 1998ƽطѽΪаѣΪ19971998ƽذշѣôΪ1998갢ʡСɱݣΪ 1997ɱݣ˰գôͲΪ1998갢ʡArgentine TransgenͲƷֵƽ͢Ϊ1995ɱݡй̵;Ϊ1998ɱݣ̩Ϊ1998꼾̵ɱݡ㻻ٷʼ㣬ͬ
4ͶãҹһͶԣĹңͶʹõĻɱҪҵ͡ȻǹͬǣҹũƷɱлͶȴռ൱ıӱ1пԿ͵⣬ҹÿƷͶöҵ6ϡУҹÿͲɱлͶΪ1.52Ԫ/ǼôΪ0.06Ԫ/19˵ҹũɱߵҪԭڻͶ̫߶µġζţũҵģеˮƽߣͶͶԼ٣ôλƷͶýһתơͬʱͶ澭õķչ־һӾ磬ӶʹҹũƷڹгϵľһ½һ˵ҹͶͶƣֻڻе˹ũƷвܷӳƷ߲˺ˮȡһںķнõһ֤ʵ
5˰պͳɱ֧ɱ֧ҹũƷеĸҴ1994꿪ʼũز˰ӱ1ԿҹÿũƷɱе˰൱ϳɱ֧ԶҡҹũƷʵʸأҸũƷϴijɱ֧ΪÿĶ67ԪΪȵijɱ֧ÿĶΪ29Ԫijɱ֧Լռܳɱ8%ҡҹũƷũҵ˰ũز˰ͳɱ֧¼ۣ
һũ˰ߣɱӰ첻ũҵ˰ǰ˰յġ1999꡶йͳ1998ũҵڹֵеıΪ18%ũҵ˰ռ˰յ4.3%.ũƷɱҲ˵һ㣬ӱ1ԿҹҪũɱеũҵ˰ı5%¡
ڶɱ֧dzɱߵҪԭ֮һɱ֧ѡͳѡ֧ɱ֧ҹжûеijɱ֧Խͳɱ֧ǽһҹũƷ۸ʾҪ;֮һ
ũز˰ʣӳڴҹ1994ʼũҵز˰˰ʴ8—31%ȡЩũزЩƷղƷǾгھģЩƷũز˰ʵƫߣǵijھ
ģȡɱ֧ǿũƷĹʾȽҹũƷĽڵۺͿ۳ɱ֧Ĺг۸ѷ֣ڿ۳ɱ֧гСסͲѵۣȻڽڵۣѷdzӽ⣬Ʒļ۸ֻ8-11%IJࡣ
ũɱṹ
ݱ1ԵõũƷɱṹϢӳɱṹҹũƷɱṹȴڽϴ졣ũƷɱṹɵõ¼Ҫۣ
һͶɱϴ
ҹũеĻͶɱܳɱռıΪ21%С35%ȣ36-38%ʹ46%ԼͲˣ54%ͼôȹ6ũƷɱлͶɱΪ9%ҡͼôũҵеɱϴҹ߳1—2 ͶͻеɱӵĽҹ6ũƷɱԱͼô20%ϡͬʱѿҹͶͶɱƣҪͶʵͶļ٣ҪҹͶͶ൱ѣͼôũͶͶȴ½ơһҹũƷͶḻƣͻɻͶñ̫ߵơһ൱ʱǺѸıģΪؾӪģ˻еˮƽߣڻͶͶͻеͶУͶʵѾҹܼũɱߵĻԭ֮һ
ڶɱ֧ϴ
˰ղӰҹũƷɱҪԭֻռܳɱ5%£Ҳ첻֮£ɱ֧ҹũƷɱӰϴڴũƷɱ֧ռܳɱıߴ10%ҡͬҪũƷڹȻͬΪũƷڹǷũũƷڹDzûгɱ֧һũҵƷ編
еúطñ
ҹũƷеܳɱռͬв죬10-20%֮䡣еܳɱռıС⣬ȴԵڶԱȹҡطܳɱռıϵͣΪûаõĻɱɱĺݡ
ҪƷɱĹʱȽ
һɱ
ҵҹũҵонϸ߱ȽƵҵҵҵҵռҹܲ70%1998ҹռ35%ͼôҪڹǶ⼸ҵɱһȽϷ
ӱ2Կ1998ҹũɢרҵÿɱҹÿɱ1998 Ϊ8—9ԪͬΪ11ԪҹʵɱҪ23%ңҹгɱˣֻɱ 64%.ͬȣҹɱҲһơ
21998ҪƷλɱˮƽĹʱȽ
ƷÿƷͶɱλƷɱ1ɱ
Ͷе˰վϴ
й
ƽ0.992.330.450.044.490.450.368.987.3
ũ1.622.050.340.053.420.770.268.557.1
רҵ0.682.200.340.004.480.250.518.457.0
гУ
ƽ0.711.990.210.013.400.350.437.097.1
רҵ0.521.950.130.013.380.200.336.506.4
1.430.552.640.224.070.111.9811.0011.0
1.320.701.140.004.210.091.328.77
⼦й
ȫƽ0.281.120.210.004.530.010.776.97-
רҵ0.271.130.130.004.510.010.536.63-
гУ0.00
ƽ0.211.060.140.004.960.000.717.08-
רҵ0.211.040.140.005.010.000.496.96-
-2.57-5.84-0.421.350.780.003.960.000.577.08-
й
ƽ0.180.880.180.004.240.010.415.89-
רҵ0.220.710.110.004.070.010.275.43-
-3.17-5.20-
0.751.230.890.003.500.000.486.86-
Դй꡶ȫũƷɱϻࡷũҵݿ⣬Arjan WismanAgri-monitor Agricultural Economics ResearchInstitute Number 1February 2000.سɱ=[ܳɱ-ɱ+×-ۼۣ]/-أгΪйĴгС
ݱ2ԼijɱṹԿڳɱṹϸ֮ڽϴ죬ҹɱռϴ25%ϣɱռ5%.Ϊǽһ˳ɱΧÿسɱÿسɱҹÿسɱԵصͺֱ34%18%.ҹɱֳԵıȽơ
ũɱȽϵĽȻͬҹɱ͵ĺҪԭΪͺȹĻͶռܳɱıϸߡũ⣨ũͶɱDZ߹ģͶɱҹռ8-10%ͺ13-15%.
ʽϿҹгɱͣɱƸͻֵעǣ1998ũɢĻͶɱռܳɱ20%Ҫȫƽˮƽ߽һҪԭǣDzõĻͶƼ۷ʽũɢרҵ֮ûͬʵг룬ΪũɢͶͶΪͶµͶʱ䣬Ͷɱ㡣һũɢɱҪһ10%ҡ
ôΪʲô˾Ƶҵҹȴϲϼôŷ˺أҪһԭҹ϶Ϊչҵıṹûнöߺͼμ⣬ӵƷܴٽӣôƷܵũ١
ݡɱ
ݵҹƷռݵڶλˣݵɱĸߵͶҵĽһչҪ塣ݡɱķǵó¼жϣ
һڳɱˮƽϣҹݲƷɱͺûдIJ죬ںڶڳɱṹϣҪIJҪռɱıϣӱ2ҹݲƷϳɱϴԼ65-70%ңΪ44%56%.ҹݵתʽϵͣ1999ݵϵתΪ2ңҹ2.5-3֮䡣
Ҫ
ҹƷɱˮƽϵͣнϴıȽơԭǣһҹƷɱлͶɱϵͣڶͶͻеѣũԣʹҹͶḻƵԳֵķӣתϵϳɱƷɱһЩģũƷijɱ֧٣壬ҹʳɱϸߣҹƷɱнϴӰ죬༴ҹʳɱĽͣҹƷɱļ½ƷǷǸռͲƷ˵ͶܼͲҵҹƷɱбȽƵҪԭ
ˮ߲˼۸ɱĹʱȽ
ԻýĹˮ߲ɱϣ˶ˮ߲˲ֱȽϷһǶҪˮ߲˹۸бȽϣǴϲƷѡһ֣ۣ̽ɱϸķ
dzˮƷ֮ҹһҪľнϸ߱ȽƵũƷ۸ڹгкǿľƷĹڼ۸һҪȹг۸20%70%3ˮ㽶֮⣨۸Ҫȹг20-30%г۸ȳ밶۸͵ij̶Ϊ棨30-50%۸̣30%ңƻ3
ҹ߲˼۸Ҳڹг۸⡢СʽҹҪũƷڼ۸Ҫȹг۸50-100%.ܲެѵļ۸ҲԶ밶ۡ1995-1998䣬⣬гļ۸Լ20%70%֮䣨3
Ϊ˸õ˽ҹƷ۸ϵ͵ԭԸ̽Ϊγɼ۸Ҫأɱз4гҹ̽ɱˮƽӦɱĿƷ⣬ҹĸ̽ɱҪԼɱ30%.
ҹ̽ƣԭУһͶñҹ١ڶ̽е̶ȽϸߣͶҲ϶ࡣҹ̽ijɱ֧Խ١ԭǣͶܼ͵ũеԴͶͶ롣
3ˮ߲˹г۸밶ۼ۸屣
ݹˮ
߲
ƻ۸㽶
ܲެ
ۣԪ/֣
1995467121102570337011008802030
199830872190184032709806301490
밶ۣԪ/֣
1995347235294206-162026182543
19983138236925742778114822361873
屣ʣ%
199535-40-39
-32-66-20
1998-2-8-2918-15-72-20
ԴԴũҵйũҵչ桷19981999й⾭ó༭ίԱᣬġй⾭óסؽݵȡ屣=[-밶ۣ/밶]×100.
4̽ɱԪ/ĹʱȽ
ݹÿƷͶɱλƷ
ɱũҩеػͶ˰ճɱ
1997й0.190.020.000.290.030.010.080.62
0.041.060.000.520.140.000.171.93
1998й0.270.030.340.050.030.080.84
0.051.170.000.790.170.000.212.38
Դ1999San Joaquin Valley Orange Cost and Return StudyUCCooperative Extension.1997ɱΪϺɱݣ1998ɱΪʥǸɱݡ
ݺӵǣҹĸ̽ԶԶ̽лƷũҩʹ㡣ߣлˮԽԽࡣũƷⲻǹʾߵ͵Ļָܷ꣬ﵽ⡣һ߲Ʒǿˮ߲˹ʾĹؼ
ġۺ߽
ҹũƷɱʱȽϷҪɹΪͶͻеũƷҹƣͶͻе˻ѵũƷdz˵ͶܼũƷҹƣܼũƷҹоơ˵ʳͲˡϺһЩũƷɱڶչңûʲôȽƣƷˮ߲ɱڶչңȽƽԡܵҹũƷɱߵҪԭǣһģ٣λƷͶýϸߣڶũƷijɱ֧ߡ
ũƷɱǿũƷʾǽٵҪ֮һΧһϱо½ũƷɱũƷʾ߽顣
һӿƼũҵʩͶ룬ũҵͼˮƽߵ͵λƷɱ
ҹǵȴũƷɱձũƷҪڹΪũƷɱũƷ۸γɵĻũƷʾҪũƷɱɱһ£ͨƹȽũҵߵЧؼٵλƷͶijɱմﵽũƷ۸ũƷʾ
ƽתгչٵλƷͶ
йֲҵģСͶͶ϶࣬ǴũɱߵĸԭҹĿǰũƽؾӪģ0.4꣬ͼôĸؾӪģӼٵǧꡣζڵλƷﻯɱͬ£йĻͶɱռܳɱ 40-60%ԶԶңռܳɱ10%ңˣƶתгķʹֺʹתؾӪģ͵λƷͶõЧ;
ȡͳɱ֧ũز˰
ҹũƷ˰5%Щũز˰Ҫũijɱ֧һصʵʸҹũƷijɱ֧Լռɱ10%ңЩũز˰ռɱıߴ40%ϡһγĶգΪû“ɱ֧”ˣȡɱ֧ũز˰ʣҹũƷĹʾһҪ;
ģʵϳɱ
ҹҪũɱͼôֻͶܼ͵ũƷƷˮ߲˵ȵɱϵ͡ҴҹƷɱṹռϴԶԶͺˣһƷɱǿƷʾҪϳɱҹʳɱϸߣϼ۸ҲϸߡΪˣʵڱ˵ϳɱԽһƷɱǿƷʾʹٽƷ
Ҫο
1.Moya P.F.D.Dawe and D.Pabale2000Reversing Trends of DecliningProductivity Project Database Social Sciences Division IRRI.
2.Wisman Agri-Monitor Agricultural Economics Research InstituteNo.1Feb.2000.
3.UC Cooperative Extension San Joaquin Valley Orange Cost and Return Study1999.
4.۾ֵȣȫũƷɱϻࡷ1997-2000ꡣ
5.ũձ磬ũֲᡷйũҵ磬19983¡
6.й⾭ó༭ίԱᣬй⾭óס1996-99ꡣ
7.ũҵйũҵչ桷1998-99ꡣ